You know, I had really hoped that we were past this.
I was born in the 70’s and grew up in the 80’s. I became an adult in the 90’s.
I remember what an expansionist, Communist-Dominated, Soviet Russia meant, not just for the people of the Soviet Union, but for the whole world.
I remember the cold war.
The whole thing could have gone nuclear, a thousand times over. It didn’t. Know why? Because the leaders of the Soviet Union were many things, but stupid wasn’t one of them. They knew, deep in their bones, that if they pressed that button and launched those missiles, then they themselves were as good as dead. The Americans would make sure of that while they were waiting for the Russian missiles to hit. Since they didn’t want to die they kept their fingers off the trigger. And the Americans did the same.
The concept was called Mutally Assured Destruction. It wasn’t perfect. In point of fact, it was horrible. But it worked. It kept the Cold War cold.
Now here we are again, almost thirty years later, face to face with an authoritarian, expansionist Russia.
Sometimes I hate flashbacks.
Vladmir was a Cold Warrior. He was an analyst with the KGB, where he rose to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. Only two types of people made Lieutenant Colonel in the KGB: stupid people with Communist Party connections, and smart people who were very good at their job.
Putin is many things. Stupid is not one of them.
He’s smart enough to have insinuated himself into the Post-Soviet government.
He’s smart enough to have won election to the post of President.
After serving his two terms he was smart enough to arrange to be appointed as Prime Minister.
After serving as Prime Minister he was smart enough to arrange his return to the office of the President.
And now that he’s there he’s smart enough to have arranged for a constitutional amendment that will allow a sitting President to serve for a maximum of three consecutive terms.
Putin is many things. Stupid is not one of them. And as we learned in the Hunt for Red October, your average Russian doesn’t go to the toilet without a plan.
Everything that he has done has been planned out well in advance.
My only question is, why now?
He’s made no secret of his ambitions towards the Ukraine. It makes sense that he would want the territory: the population is a mixed bag of Ukranians jumbled in with ethnic Russians. Makes perfect sense.
But why now?
During the Bush and Obama years he had other priorities. He needed to get his ducks in a row.
But during the Trump years he pretty much had carte blanche. He could have done anything he wanted and been absolutely certain that the Americans would not respond because Trump would never allow it.
Putin has no such guarantee with Biden, but he does have an American President who appears weak and unpopular, and seems perfectly content to leave the heavy leadership decisions to the fine furry folks at NATO.
Clearly Putin has decided that the second state of affairs is more valuable to him than the first state of affairs. I can’t for the life of me suss out why.
But I do know this: Vladmir Putin is many things. Stupid is not one of them.
No Free Lunch 